Bet On the Outcome of the Poker Experiment!
I recently wrote about my poker experiment, where I try to beat low-stakes online cash poker with a forecasting hat on. I am also trying out Manifold Markets to see how it (subjectively) compares to Metaculus.1 I intend to write more about this as I’ve gathered a little more experience with the platform, because it is somewhat confusing when you start out.
A couple of days ago I set up a market on whether I will continue to appear successful in beating cash poker in the short term.
You should bet against me – or in my favour if you actually believe in the idea. Sign-up at Manifold requires a Google account2 Unless I misunderstand that is the only option. but is otherwise just one or two clicks, and they give you 500 play money to bet with when you sign up.
Click the link in the iframe above or go directly to the bet to show what you think.
I don’t believe this needs to be said, but this is not an endorsement of Manifold as a platform. It’s still too early for me to tell what I really think about it. That said, if this sort of bet with my readership works out, I might try it more often.